A time-varying of property residential price in Indonesia: a VAR approach

Abstract

The crisis of 2008 started with asset price bubbles which spread to other sectors, thus driving a recession. Turmoil in the housing sector can directly harm the domestic economy and financial stability. The research aims to analyze macroeconomic variables that can affect asset prices in Indonesia and how the inflation-targeting framework directly affects asset prices. This study contributes to the current research, such as the early warning system for the asset sector that the crisis of 2008 started with asset price bubbles. The Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) policy used by the Central Bank has shown its effectiveness in the property sector. It can be seen that a negative response is shown from property prices when there are inflationary shocks. The response of interest rates to fluctuations in housing prices is stronger than the response of housing prices to fluctuations in interest rates. It indicates that the interest rate stimulus is more reactive to changes in housing prices as an accommodation of housing price volatility. GDP and money supply will respond negatively to property price fluctuations, which can lead to a crisis because GDP responds negatively. The strengthening of fiscal and monetary policy can soften the volatility of asset prices.