A Simple Method for Estimation of the Future Burden of Mesothelioma Deaths in Japan

Abstract

The annual total number of mesothelioma deaths in Japan has been increasing since 1995, when the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare began to record the number in demographics and statistics. Mesothelioma deaths are mainly caused by inspiration of asbestos. Since a great deal of asbestos has been imported and used, many people are concerned about a future increase in mesothelioma deaths. The increase in the annual total number of mesothelioma deaths is not regular. However, the cumulative number of mesothelioma deaths fits perfectly with the formula y = 24.77x2 + 492.2x + 538.69(R2=0.9999), in which y is the cumulative number of mesothelioma deaths and x is year 1995. The cumulative number of mesothelioma deaths in the years 2010(x=15) and 2025(x=30) were calculated as 13,495 and 37,598, respectively. Although these values showed a high correlation with the cumulative weight of imported asbestos over the previous 30 years, the correlation did not seem to be useful in estimating the future burden of mesothelioma deaths, since the time taken by inspired asbestos to cause mesothelioma is very variable.