Measurement Model of the Construction Dividend of Megaprojects: A Case Study of the Guangle Expressway

2018 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering (ICMSE) Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI:10.1109/ICMSE.2018.8745280

Fang Zhang, Shuping Cheng, Yun Qiu

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Abstract

Investment in megaprojects has a construction dividend. Taking the megaproject, the Guangle Expressway, as a case, this paper uses panel data from 41 cities, in Guangdong, Hunan, and Jiangxi, from 2000 to 2016 to construct a construction dividend measurement and evolution model based on multi-stage dummy variables. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The Guangle Expressway has a comprehensive dividend across its entire lifecycle. It has a dividend effect on economic growth, the adjustment of industrial structure, and the attraction of the cities along its route, and this effect evolves positively; (2) The investment in and construction of the Guangle Expressway have a significant dividend effect on related industries in the region, including construction, industry, transportation, retail and catering, finance and insurance, and so, during the construction and operation period, it promotes the development of related industries. The research results provide a theoretical basis for the calculation of the construction dividend of megaprojects in China, and provide new ideas for megaproject investment decisions.

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大型项目建设红利测度模型——以广乐高速公路为例

对大型项目的投资有建设红利。本文以广乐高速公路这一大型工程为例，利用2000 - 2016年广东、湖南、江西41个城市的面板数据，构建了基于多阶段虚拟变量的建设红利测度与演化模型。研究结果表明:(1)广乐高速公路在全生命周期具有综合红利。对经济增长、产业结构调整、沿线城市吸引力等具有红利效应，且正向演化;(2)广乐高速公路的投资建设对区域内建筑、工业、交通、零售餐饮、金融保险等相关产业具有显著的红利效应，在建设和运营期间促进了相关产业的发展。研究结果为中国特大工程建设红利的计算提供了理论依据，为特大工程投资决策提供了新的思路。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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2018 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering (ICMSE)

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