Will China Take Over the World in the Middle of the 21st Century?

J. Fiszer
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Abstract

The subject of this article is China and the analysis of its chances of gaining the status of the number one superpower in the world by the middle of the 21st century. I try to answer two fundamental questions here: Will China take over the world in the middle of the 21st century and will the United States and its allies allow this to happen? I try to answer these in both theoretical and utilitarian terms. I refer to several research theories, including the theory of equilibrium support and George Modelski’s long cycle theory. Above all, I refer to the theory of the state’s foreign policy, the theory of classical realism and the theory of hegemonic change. I use a comparative method and a critical discourse analysis, among others.The main hypothesis of the article is the conclusion that the United States is slowly losing its position as a global hegemon in the international arena, which strengthens China’s chances of achieving its strategic goal in international politics, which is to take over the world by the mid-21st century.However, this will not be an easy task. It will depend on many factors, including the internal situation in China and the policy of the United States and its allies towards Chinese aspirations, as well as Russia’s position on this issue, which is already competing with China’s growing influence in the world. China may also join forces with Russia and collectively deprive the United States of its hegemonic status. On the other hand, there is a tendency in political science to assume that Russia-China relations are a balancing alliance for the United States. However, this practice may verify the overall Russia-China relations in favour of the United States, thanks to which it will manage to maintain control over the world and defend its status as a hegemon in the international arena.
21世纪中叶,中国会主宰世界吗?
本文的主题是中国及其在21世纪中叶成为世界头号超级大国的可能性分析。我试图在这里回答两个基本问题:中国会在21世纪中叶接管世界吗?美国及其盟友会允许这种情况发生吗?我试图从理论和功利的角度来回答这些问题。我参考了几种研究理论,包括均衡支持理论和George Modelski的长周期理论。最重要的是,我指的是国家外交政策理论、古典现实主义理论和霸权变革理论。我使用比较方法和批评话语分析等方法。文章的主要假设是美国在国际舞台上逐渐失去全球霸主的地位,这增加了中国在国际政治中实现其战略目标的机会,即到21世纪中叶接管世界。然而,这不是一件容易的事。这将取决于许多因素,包括中国的内部局势、美国及其盟友对中国抱负的政策,以及俄罗斯在这个问题上的立场,俄罗斯已经在与中国在世界上日益增长的影响力竞争。中国也可能与俄罗斯联手,共同剥夺美国的霸权地位。另一方面,政治学界有一种倾向,认为俄中关系对美国来说是一种平衡的联盟关系。然而,这种做法可能会证实俄中关系总体上有利于美国,因此它将设法保持对世界的控制,并捍卫其在国际舞台上的霸权地位。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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