Kinematics of global mean thermosteric sea level during 1993–2019

IF 0.9 Q4 REMOTE SENSING
H. Iz
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Abstract

Abstract Because oceans cover 71% of Earth’s surface, ocean warming, consequential for thermal expansion of sea water, has been the largest contributor to the global mean sea level rise averaged over the 20th and the early 21st century. This study first generates quasi-observed monthly globally averaged thermosteric sea level time series by removing the contributions of global mean sea level budget components, namely, Glaciers, Greenland, Antarctica, and Terrestrial Water Storage from satellite altimetry measured global sea level changes during 1993–2019. A baseline kinematic model with global mean thermosteric sea level trend and a uniform acceleration is solved to evaluate the performance of a rigorous mixed kinematic model. The model also includes coefficients of monthly lagged 60 yearlong cumulative global mean sea surface temperature gradients and control variables of lunisolar origins and representations for first order autoregressive disturbances. The mixed kinematic model explains 94% (Adjusted R2)1 of the total variability in quasi-observed monthly and globally averaged thermosteric time series compared to the 46% of the baseline kinematic model’s Adjusted R2. The estimated trend, 1.19±0.03 mm/yr., is attributed to the long-term ocean warming. Whereas eleven statistically significant (α = 0.05) monthly lagged cumulative global mean sea surface temperature gradients each having a memory of 60 years explain the remainder transient global mean thermosteric sea level changes due to the episodic ocean surface warming and cooling during this period. The series also exhibit signatures of a statistically significant contingent uniform global sea level acceleration and periodic lunisolar forcings.
1993-2019年全球平均热阻海平面运动学
由于海洋覆盖了71%的地球表面,海洋变暖导致海水热膨胀,是20世纪和21世纪初全球平均海平面上升的最大贡献者。本研究首先通过从1993-2019年卫星测得的全球海平面变化中去除全球平均海平面收支分量(即冰川、格陵兰岛、南极洲和陆地储水)的贡献,生成准观测的月度全球平均热滞海平面时间序列。求解了具有均匀加速度和全球平均热静态海平面趋势的基线运动学模型,以评价严格混合运动学模型的性能。该模型还包括每月滞后的60年累积全球平均海温梯度系数和日月起源的控制变量,以及一阶自回归扰动的表示。混合运动学模型解释了准观测月和全球平均热阻时间序列中94%(调整后的R2)1的总变异性,而基线运动学模型的调整后的R2为46%。估计趋势为1.19±0.03 mm/年。这是由于长期的海洋变暖。而11个统计上显著(α = 0.05)的月滞后累积全球平均海面温度梯度,每个具有60年的记忆,解释了这一时期由于海面偶发性变暖和变冷而引起的其余瞬态全球平均热阻海平面变化。该系列还显示出统计上显著的全球海平面均匀加速和周期性日月强迫的特征。
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来源期刊
Journal of Geodetic Science
Journal of Geodetic Science REMOTE SENSING-
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
3
审稿时长
14 weeks
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