A new president in the White House: implications for Canadian agricultural trade

Abstract

Canadian agricultural trade has experienced several volatile periods over the past 15 years. The Great Recession (2007–2009), the 2015–2016 global trade slowdown, unilateral policy actions by the United States against key trade allies and the multilateral system more generally, and the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic are among the most significant events during this period. Given the close integration of Canadian and US agricultural markets, the recent US election is likely to again impact the relative competitiveness of Canadian agricultural exports. While many observers suggest President-elect Joe Biden will return to normal times regarding multilateral cooperation with key allies and international institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the new administration is likely to face headwinds given the significant fraying of ties with key trading partners and allies due to disruptive actions taken by his predecessor. This article provides an overview of potential implications of a Biden administration for Canada's agricultural trade. We start by reviewing recent trade shock events affecting Canada's agricultural trade with a particular focus on trade actions taken by the United States. Relevant components of the President-elect Biden's platform, considerations affecting the implementation of this platform, and the implications of this for Canadian agricultural trade are considered.