Geostatistical Analysis of Apricot Shot Hole Disease and Influence Factors in District Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Abstract

Apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) is the most common, high-income generative fruit and consequently plays an important part in the region's socio-economic growth. However, apricots are susceptible to several diseases and pests that cause lower yields and significant financial losses, including apricot shot hole disease brought on by Wilsonomyces carpophilus, a polyphagous fungus, creates a serious threat to stone fruits, particularly the apricot tree. The current study used descriptive statistics and geostatistical approaches to evaluate the geographical distribution of the apricot shot hole disease (5 valleys, 30 orchards, and 480 apricot trees) in district Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. From each apricot tree, 150 apricot fruits, a total of 72,000, were randomly selected to assess the incidence, disease index, and severity. Results revealed that the disease is spatially distributed within the study area, varying within valleys and orchards. The range of disease prevalence was 50.0-67.70%, incidence 56.97-64.01%, index 32.49-40.56% and mean severity 0.21-0.24%. Geostatistical techniques were used to predict the spatial dependency class. Results revealed that disease prevalence had a nugget/sill ratio of 0.915, inferring weak spatial dependence, whereas incidence, disease index, and severity inferred moderate spatial dependence with nugget/sill ratios of 0.479, 0.628, and 0.393, respectively. Moreover, the spherical semivariogram model, trend analysis graph, and GIS maps indicate the region's spatial distribution of apricot shot hole disease. This information linked to metrological data (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) seemingly favored the apricot shot hole disease development during the growing period. Evaluation of geostatistical mapping strategies in monitoring spatial distributions of apricot shot hole disease in a field setting will improve the decision support for disease management, selection of resistant variety, and improve sanitation condition of apricot orchards. Continuous climate and pest monitoring are essential for creating an efficient disease warning system for farmers and other organizations involved in agriculture to prevent future plant epidemics.