They Warned (Soviet Scientists Who Foresaw The Collapse of The Ussr)

Abstract

The works of Soviet scientists who warned in the 60–70 years about the possibility of the collapse of the USSR are analyzed. In the book "Will the USSR live to 1984?", published in 1969, historian Andrei Amalrik identified the causes of the possible collapse of the USSR (the elimination of the most active and capable from the life and composition of the ruling class, the decrepitude of the regime, the degradation of morality and deideologization) and even named its approximate dates. In a note to the leaders of the government party dated March 19, 1970, physicists Sakharova and Turchin and historian Medvedev showed the slowdown in the sixties in the USSR of economic development and technological progress, the standard of living of the population, the growing lag in these areas from developed capitalist countries. They linked these phenomena with the lack of freedom of thought and creativity, political freedoms. The economist and historian Akhiezer analyzed the history of Russia and, based on the revealed cyclical development of Russia and the huge factual material about political and economic development, predicted perestroika and its collapse, accompanied by the collapse of the USSR. Khanin produced alternative estimates of the dynamics of the economic development of the USSR and its factors by a number of methods. A steady decline in the pace of economic development and resource efficiency has been revealed since the seventh five-year plan. On this basis, a significant reduction in the national income of the USSR was predicted from the mid-80s. B.N. Mikhalevsky, head of the Forecasting Department of the Central Research Institute of the USSR Academy of Sciences, in 1967 made a forecast of the development of the Soviet economy for the next 10–15 years. Based on an in-depth analysis of the structure of the Soviet economy and real inflation figures, it predicted a decline in industrial production and the standard of living of the population while maintaining the previous economic policy. It is shown that the authors of forecasts of the possible collapse of the USSR were either persecuted or their opinion was ignored. It is shown that ignoring warnings about the possible collapse of the USSR is explained by the authoritarian nature of the Soviet social system, the low intellectual level of the Soviet leadership of the 60s and 70s, and fears of losing power. The article analyzes the appearance of the authors of warnings about the collapse of the USSR.