Tracking and modeling public perceptions toward the reality of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Abdullahi Yusuf, Nasiru Ibrahim Tambuwal, Hadiza Ahmad Gusau, Faruk Usman Maiyaki
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The study tracked and modeled public perceptions toward the reality of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria over a 3 month period (10 May to 10 August 2020); 2580 Nigerians across the six geopolitical zones were selected to participate in the study. These participants were selected from various social media platforms and were requested to complete an online survey over a 3-month period. Data were analyzed in three phases: tracking, modeling, and forecasting. We first tracked the respondents’ perceptions in the form of a qualitative response, where seven thematic constructs emerged from content analysis. These constructs were confirmed in the modeling phase, using structural equation modeling after data transformation. The themes were forecast as a single construct to predict possible trends and patterns over the next 3 month period using an autoregressive integrated moving average. Our findings revealed that public perceptions toward the reality of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria fall into seven thematic constructs: “scam,” “fake,” “politics,” “business venture,” “exaggeration,” “real,” and “real but manipulated.” These constructs show a steady trend with a random walk pattern, suggesting that perceptions toward the reality of COVID-19 in Nigeria will remain relatively unchanged over the next 3 month period. We recommend, among other things, that massive and intensive sensitization and awareness programs are needed to change the public mindset concerning the reality of the pandemic in Nigeria.
跟踪和模拟公众对尼日利亚COVID-19大流行现实的看法
该研究在3个月期间(2020年5月10日至8月10日)追踪并模拟了公众对尼日利亚COVID-19大流行现实的看法;来自六个地缘政治区域的2580名尼日利亚人被选中参与这项研究。这些参与者是从不同的社交媒体平台中挑选出来的,并被要求在三个月的时间里完成一项在线调查。数据分析分为三个阶段:跟踪、建模和预测。我们首先以定性回应的形式跟踪受访者的看法,其中七个主题结构从内容分析中出现。在建模阶段,使用数据转换后的结构方程建模来确定这些结构。这些主题被预测为一个单一的结构,以预测未来3个月期间可能的趋势和模式,使用自回归综合移动平均线。我们的研究结果显示,公众对尼日利亚COVID-19大流行现实的看法分为七个主题结构:“骗局”、“虚假”、“政治”、“商业冒险”、“夸张”、“真实”和“真实但被操纵”。这些结构呈现出随机游走模式的稳定趋势,表明在未来3个月期间,对尼日利亚COVID-19现实的看法将保持相对不变。我们建议,除其他事项外,需要进行大规模和密集的宣传和提高认识方案,以改变公众对尼日利亚流行病现实的看法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
12.50%
发文量
40
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