Predictions of FluSurge 2.0 methodology on hospital utilization during the Covid-19 outbreaks in several countries

IF 4.9 Q1 BUSINESS
F. Reyes-Santías, I. Barrachina-Martínez, D. Vivas-Consuelo
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Application of the Flusurge 2.0 methodology to predict the needs of conventional hospital treatment, intensive care, and respiratory support resources as a consequence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in several countries. Different countries of the following continents have been selected: Europe, Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania. Variables: Total population and age distribution; Number of COVID19 infections; Number of deaths from COVID19; Number of non-ICU hospital beds; Number of ICU beds; Number of ventilators. Method: The proposed possible scenario planning is based on the application of FluSurge 2.0 Software, developed by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (CHS/CDC). Saturation of conventional hospitalization is expected in India, Uganda, Nepal, and Haiti; there is a forecast of saturation for ICU beds in all sample countries except Turkey. Ventilator saturation is expected in all countries of the sample except Argentina, Austria, Brazil, France, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Norway, Poland, Turkey and the USA. The model shows, for a percentage greater than 50% of the countries, difficulties related to the saturation of their ICU units, and the use of ventilators.
FluSurge 2.0方法对若干国家Covid-19疫情期间医院利用情况的预测
在一些国家应用Flusurge 2.0方法预测冠状病毒病(COVID-19)对传统医院治疗、重症监护和呼吸支持资源的需求选择了以下各大洲的不同国家:欧洲、亚洲、非洲、北美、南美和大洋洲。变量:总人口和年龄分布;covid - 19感染人数;covid - 19死亡人数;非icu病床数;ICU床位数;通风机数量。方法:采用美国约翰霍普金斯大学卫生安全中心(CHS/CDC)开发的FluSurge 2.0软件进行可能的场景规划。印度、乌干达、尼泊尔和海地的传统住院治疗预计将达到饱和;除土耳其外,所有样本国家的ICU床位都有饱和预测。除阿根廷、奥地利、巴西、法国、英国、日本、韩国、挪威、波兰、土耳其和美国外,所有样本国家的呼吸机饱和度预计都将达到饱和。该模型显示,超过50%的国家存在与ICU病房饱和和呼吸机使用有关的困难。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
6.10%
发文量
17
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Engineering Business Management (IJEBM) is an international, peer-reviewed, open access scientific journal that aims to promote an integrated and multidisciplinary approach to engineering, business and management. The journal focuses on issues related to the design, development and implementation of new methodologies and technologies that contribute to strategic and operational improvements of organizations within the contemporary global business environment. IJEBM encourages a systematic and holistic view in order to ensure an integrated and economically, socially and environmentally friendly approach to management of new technologies in business. It aims to be a world-class research platform for academics, managers, and professionals to publish scholarly research in the global arena. All submitted articles considered suitable for the International Journal of Engineering Business Management are subjected to rigorous peer review to ensure the highest levels of quality. The review process is carried out as quickly as possible to minimize any delays in the online publication of articles. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to: -Competitive product design and innovation -Operations and manufacturing strategy -Knowledge management and knowledge innovation -Information and decision support systems -Radio Frequency Identification -Wireless Sensor Networks -Industrial engineering for business improvement -Logistics engineering and transportation -Modeling and simulation of industrial and business systems -Quality management and Six Sigma -Automation of industrial processes and systems -Manufacturing performance and productivity measurement -Supply Chain Management and the virtual enterprise network -Environmental, legal and social aspects -Technology Capital and Financial Modelling -Engineering Economics and Investment Theory -Behavioural, Social and Political factors in Engineering
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