Modelling electricity demand in Karachi: historical trends, determinants, and future scenarios

Abstract

Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all is one of the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations General Assembly (SDG 7). Achieving this goal requires both insights into the drivers of present energy demand and foresight into how it will evolve in the future. This information on the demand side is also vital in planning a supply system that relies on affordable, reliable and sustainable energy as much as possible. Unfortunately, in most low- and medium-income countries, data availability on both demand and supply sides remains extremely limited, which complicates downstream operation. In this paper, we analyze overall electricity demand in Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan and one of the largest in the world. The city, with its cooling-dominated climate, experiences large and rapidly growing electricity demand during the summer period. We also discuss how climate change, socioeconomic factors, and distributed generation through renewable energy have influenced the demand historically, and provide insights into its future evolution.