From empirical data to mathematical model: using population dynamics to characterize insurgencies

Abstract

Understanding the nature of insurgencies is critical to determining strategies for mitigating their effects. Modeling insurgencies is one method to provide a structured methodology to gain insight into the various characteristics of insurgencies. This study applied system dynamics to model insurgencies from both a regional and global population view. It used the system dynamics model to develop a population dynamics mathematical representation of insurgencies and the factors that control the flow of population members into and out of insurgency behavior. Pertinent factors were gathered through a systematic review of insurgencies throughout history. Additional review in the area of human behavior and group dynamics was also conducted to identify relevant factors. The study concluded that a system dynamics model could represent insurgency and counterinsurgency situations and that population dynamics was able to mathematically represent the system.