Black gold falls, black plague arise - An Opec crude oil price forecast using a gray prediction model

Abstract

In the global economy, crude oil is the most strategic commodity, which plays an important role in determining many regional and international equations. The oil market is the most complex, turbulent, and opaque international financial market. The conditions of these financial markets are well matched to the gray analysis environment. Therefore, the researchers of the present study have proposed the gray prediction model. The results show that using the gray prediction model causes the performance to be significantly improved. The main aim of this paper is to find a model to provide clear projections for the future of oil prices.