Fog, friction, and control in organized conflict: punctuated transitions to instability

Abstract

We explore the effects of Clausewitzian fog and friction using a data rate theorem–based model of the phase transition from control to failure for inherently unstable systems that include, but are not limited to, the many possible modalities of organized conflict. Fog-and-friction challenge any and all cognitive structures facing dynamic patterns of threat or opportunity, whether control is manifested through an institution, a machine entity, or some composite. The fundamental nature of challenge appears independent of the degree of sophistication of those institutions, entities, or composites, and of the technical modalities employed. The dialog/Zweikampf of organized conflict is—and will remain—an intimate and most human enterprise. Implications for other existential threats of inherently unstable circumstance, like pandemic disease or climate change, are evident.