Omid Aboubakri, Reza Rezaee, Afshin Maleki, Mahdi Safari, Gholamreza Goudarzi, Guoxing Li, Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand, Rahim Sharafkhani
{"title":"Temporal change in cold and heat-related burden of mortality: an evidence of increasing heat impact in Iran","authors":"Omid Aboubakri, Reza Rezaee, Afshin Maleki, Mahdi Safari, Gholamreza Goudarzi, Guoxing Li, Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand, Rahim Sharafkhani","doi":"10.1007/s11869-023-01414-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Temporal change in heat and cold-related burden of mortality needs to be investigated in Iran. In this study, the burden between 2015 and 2022 was compared with 2008–2014 in eight cities of Kurdistan which is located to the west of Iran. The overall dose–response association between temperature and mortality by different years (i.e., interaction effect between year and temperature) was assessed using bivariate response surface model and the framework of generalized additive model (GAM). The cumulative dose–response as well as lag-response associations in the two periods was compared by a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. The associations were pooled using a two-stage regression model in which average temperature and temperature range were adjusted to control for the heterogenicity between cities. The attributable fraction (AF) and number (AN) were estimated in each city to ease the interpretation. Compared to 2008–2014, heat and extreme heat caused more mortality than cold and extreme cold in 2015–2022; the relative risk (RR) values of heat in second period were significantly higher than first period, and the cumulative RR of the extreme heat was 1.56 (%95 CI: 1.23–1.98) and 0.88 (%95 CI: 0.66–1.18) in second and first periods, respectively. Also, the cumulative RR of extreme cold was 1.01 (0.87, 1.17) and 0.89 (0.76, 1.05) in second and first periods, respectively. In second period, the extreme heat values approximately caused a minimum of 100 deaths in Marivan and a maximum of 400 in Sanandaj. The AF in Baneh, Kamyaran, and Sanandaj was significantly higher than other cities. All subgroups’ people were at risk of heat-related mortality in second period, and the cold had no significant impact in the period. Heat-related mortality was increased in recent years while cold had no significant impact. The results highlight the need for an adaptation or preventive strategy of heat-related mortality in the regions.</p><h3>Graphical Abstract</h3>\n<div><figure><div><div><picture><source><img></source></picture></div></div></figure></div></div>","PeriodicalId":49109,"journal":{"name":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-023-01414-0","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Temporal change in heat and cold-related burden of mortality needs to be investigated in Iran. In this study, the burden between 2015 and 2022 was compared with 2008–2014 in eight cities of Kurdistan which is located to the west of Iran. The overall dose–response association between temperature and mortality by different years (i.e., interaction effect between year and temperature) was assessed using bivariate response surface model and the framework of generalized additive model (GAM). The cumulative dose–response as well as lag-response associations in the two periods was compared by a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. The associations were pooled using a two-stage regression model in which average temperature and temperature range were adjusted to control for the heterogenicity between cities. The attributable fraction (AF) and number (AN) were estimated in each city to ease the interpretation. Compared to 2008–2014, heat and extreme heat caused more mortality than cold and extreme cold in 2015–2022; the relative risk (RR) values of heat in second period were significantly higher than first period, and the cumulative RR of the extreme heat was 1.56 (%95 CI: 1.23–1.98) and 0.88 (%95 CI: 0.66–1.18) in second and first periods, respectively. Also, the cumulative RR of extreme cold was 1.01 (0.87, 1.17) and 0.89 (0.76, 1.05) in second and first periods, respectively. In second period, the extreme heat values approximately caused a minimum of 100 deaths in Marivan and a maximum of 400 in Sanandaj. The AF in Baneh, Kamyaran, and Sanandaj was significantly higher than other cities. All subgroups’ people were at risk of heat-related mortality in second period, and the cold had no significant impact in the period. Heat-related mortality was increased in recent years while cold had no significant impact. The results highlight the need for an adaptation or preventive strategy of heat-related mortality in the regions.
期刊介绍：
Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health.
It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes.
International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals.
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements.
This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.
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