Controlling Epidemic Spread Under Immunization Delay Constraints

Abstract

In this paper, we study the problem of minimizing the spread of a viral epidemic when immunization takes a non-negligible amount of time to take into effect. Specifically, our problem is to determine which set of nodes to be vaccinated when vaccines take a random amount of time in order to maximize the total reward, which is the expected number of saved nodes. We first provide a mathematical analysis for the reward function of vaccinating an arbitrary number of nodes when there is a single source of infection. While it is infeasible to obtain the optimal solution analytically due to the combinatorial nature of the problem, we establish that the problem is a monotone sub-modular maximization problem and develop a greedy algorithm that achieves a ($1-1/e$) -approximation. We further extend the scenario to the ones with multiple infection sources and discuss how the greedy algorithm can be applied systematically for the multiple-source scenarios. We finally present extensive simulation results to demonstrate the superiority of our greedy algorithm over other baseline vaccination strategies.