The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.001

Tarik Marques do Prado Tanure , Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima , Aline Souza Magalhães , Edson Paulo Domingues , Terciane Sabadini Carvalho

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引用次数: 26

Abstract

Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture.

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2030 - 2049年气候变化对亚马孙地区农业生产、土地利用和经济的影响

全球变暖和气候对农业产出、土地利用和粮食生产的影响。本文试图验证气候变化对合法亚马逊地区的经济影响，特别是对农业生产、土地利用、GDP和就业创造的影响。我们采用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型，即REGIA -巴西合法亚马逊地区区域间一般均衡模型，来评估IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)提出的气候变化情景对该地区农业生产和土地利用的影响。结果表明，由于农业部门的生产和就业减少，合法亚马逊地区的经济指标下降，导致2049年实际GDP损失约1.18%。由于牧场逐渐被农田取代，森林砍伐将会增加。这种变化在空间上并不均匀，更多地影响了马托格罗索州、托坎廷斯州和帕尔州，这些州的经济依赖于农业。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

EconomiA

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

0.00%

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