Hypothetical Strategies to Reduce the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Mobile Sources on the Orizaba Valley

Joaquín Pinto-Espinoza, Adán Reyes-Pavón, Marco A. Benítez-Espíndola, Gustavo Alvarado-Kinnell, A. Bello-ramírez
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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established clear and solids conclusions on the 2013 report, it says that has been scientifically demonstrated with 95% of certainty, that human activities are the main cause of the global warming, observed since the middle of the XX century. The Orizaba Valley is a Mexican region, located at the geographic center of Veracruz State, having Orizaba City as the main demographic population surrounded by other municipalities, becoming the fourth metropolitan populated area of Veracruz State. This region has the third position on economic, historic and cultural relevance at Veracruz State, just after the Veracruz Port and Xalapa City. It was one of the main places with a vast economic growing during the Viceroyalty of the New Spain, being an obligatory passing route and resting place between Veracruz Port and Mexico City. This project estimates the magnitude of the Greenhouse Gas emissions coming from mobile sources at the Orizaba Valley. It includes the urban region of the municipalities of Ixtaczoquitlan, Orizaba, Río Blanco, Camerino de Mendoza and Nogales. The collected data was processed according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodology and it was possible to make the following projections: 1) One baseline scenario and 2) Three scenarios under hypothetical mitigation strategies that promise to achieve a reduction of GHG emission of 30 % from the year 2020 to 2050. Beyond this, also there is a significant reduction in fossil fuels consumption due to the efficient use of energy. All projections were made by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system software. In addition of the achievement on the GHG emissions reduction goal, it is possible to glimpse an economic recovery, if and only if, the decision makers of the governments decide to participate in the international trade of carbon market.
减少Orizaba山谷移动源温室气体排放的假设策略
政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ipcc)在2013年的报告中得出了明确而确凿的结论,该报告称,自20世纪中叶以来,人类活动是全球变暖的主要原因,这一结论已得到95%的科学证实。奥里萨巴山谷是墨西哥的一个地区,位于韦拉克鲁斯州的地理中心,奥里萨巴市是主要的人口人口,被其他城市包围,成为韦拉克鲁斯州的第四个大都市人口区域。该地区在韦拉克鲁斯州的经济、历史和文化意义上排名第三,仅次于韦拉克鲁斯港和哈拉帕市。在新西班牙总督统治时期,它是经济发展迅速的主要地区之一,是韦拉克鲁斯港和墨西哥城之间的必经之路和休息之地。该项目估计了奥里萨巴河谷移动源产生的温室气体排放量的大小。它包括Ixtaczoquitlan, Orizaba, Río Blanco, Camerino de Mendoza和Nogales等市的市区。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的方法对收集到的数据进行了处理,可以作出以下预测:1)一个基线情景和2)假设缓解战略下的三个情景,承诺从2020年到2050年实现温室气体排放量减少30%。除此之外,由于能源的有效利用,化石燃料的消耗也显著减少。所有预测都是使用长期能源替代规划系统软件进行的。除了温室气体减排目标的实现之外,当且仅当政府决策者决定参与碳市场的国际贸易时,才有可能看到经济复苏。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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