Are high school students accurate in predicting their AP exam scores?: Examining inaccuracy and overconfidence of students’ predictions

IF 2.7 3区教育学 Q1 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH

Assessment in Education-Principles Policy & Practice Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI:10.1080/0969594X.2022.2037508

Teresa M. Ober, Maxwell R. Hong, Matthew F. Carter, Alex S. Brodersen, Daniella A. Rebouças-Ju, Cheng Liu, Ying Cheng

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT We examined whether students were accurate in predicting their test performance in both low-stakes and high-stakes testing contexts. The sample comprised U.S. high school students enrolled in an advanced placement (AP) statistics course during the 2017–2018 academic year (N = 209; Mage = 16.6 years). We found that even two months before taking the AP exam, a high stakes summative assessment, students were moderately accurate in predicting their actual scores (κweighted = .62). When the same variables were entered into models predicting inaccuracy and overconfidence bias, results did not provide evidence that age, gender, parental education, number of mathematics classes previously taken, or course engagement accounted for variation in accuracy. Overconfidence bias differed between students enrolled at different schools. Results indicated that students’ predictions of performance were positively associated with performance in both low- and high-stakes testing contexts. The findings shed light on ways to leverage students’ self-assessment for learning.

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高中生预测自己的AP考试成绩准确吗?:检查学生预测的不准确性和过度自信

摘要:我们研究了学生在低风险和高风险测试情境下预测自己考试成绩的准确性。样本包括2017-2018学年参加AP统计学课程的美国高中生(N = 209;法师= 16.6年)。我们发现，即使在参加AP考试(一项高风险的总结性评估)前两个月，学生对自己实际分数的预测也有一定的准确性(κ加权= 0.62)。当同样的变量被输入到预测不准确性和过度自信偏差的模型中时，结果并没有提供证据表明年龄、性别、父母的教育程度、以前上过的数学课的数量或课程参与可以解释准确性的变化。不同学校的学生对过度自信的偏见有所不同。结果表明，在低风险和高风险的测试环境中，学生对成绩的预测与成绩呈正相关。这些发现揭示了如何利用学生的自我评估来学习。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Assessment in Education-Principles Policy & Practice EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH-

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

3.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Recent decades have witnessed significant developments in the field of educational assessment. New approaches to the assessment of student achievement have been complemented by the increasing prominence of educational assessment as a policy issue. In particular, there has been a growth of interest in modes of assessment that promote, as well as measure, standards and quality. These have profound implications for individual learners, institutions and the educational system itself. Assessment in Education provides a focus for scholarly output in the field of assessment. The journal is explicitly international in focus and encourages contributions from a wide range of assessment systems and cultures. The journal''s intention is to explore both commonalities and differences in policy and practice.