PREDIKSI PASOKAN BAWANG MERAH MENDUKUNG DESAIN PENGEMBANGAN AGROINDUSTRI DI PROVINSI ACEH

Jurnal Teknologi Industri Pertanian Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI:10.24961/j.tek.ind.pert.2021.31.1.46

Rizki Ardiansyah, Rachman Jaya, Yusriana Yusriana, Cut Hilda Rahmi

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

One of the focus of agricultural commodities development is shallot. It was contributed on national and regional inflation. Therefore, is not a national centra prodcution of shallot, Aceh Province has shallot centra productio, namely at Pidie, Aceh Tengah and Aceh Besar district. As we know that the main character agricultural product was seasonal, thus sholud be effectivally managed of its. The objectives of this research were to obtain prodcution shallot pattern and to design a agroindustrial model which suitable with shallot characteristic production. The technique used Auto Regresive Moving Average (ARIMA), the data is used time-series (monthly) for 6 month, whereas option design model and product used Analitical Hierarcy Process (AHP). The result of study show that a model of ARIMA (p,d,q) was (0,0,1) with mean square 20,682,669. Meanwhile, the prediction of production t+1=6,662 qiuntal. The option of model design was micro-agroindustrial with a weight (0,59), small-agroindustrial (025). Whereas the main product was pasta (0,41), shallot (0,26) and shallot-cuted (0,19) Key words: Agroindustrial, Shallot, ARIMA and AHP

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洋葱供应的预测支持亚齐省农业工业发展的设计

大葱是我国农产品发展的重点之一。这是对国家和地区通货膨胀的贡献。因此，不是全国大葱的生产中心，亚齐省有大葱的生产中心，即在Pidie、亚齐Tengah和亚齐Besar区。我们知道，农产品的主要特征是季节性的，因此应该对其进行有效的管理。本研究的目的是获得大葱的生产模式，并设计出适合大葱特色生产的农工模式。技术使用自动回归移动平均线(ARIMA)，数据使用时间序列(月)为6个月，而期权设计模型和产品使用层次分析法(AHP)。研究结果表明，ARIMA (p,d,q)模型为(0,0,1)，均方为20,682,669。同时，产量预测t+1= 6662千吨。模型设计的选择是微农工业(0,59)，小农工业(025)。主要产品为面食(0,41)、大葱(0,26)和葱花(0,19)。关键词:农业工业、大葱、ARIMA和AHP

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Jurnal Teknologi Industri Pertanian

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