Losing the Inflation Anchor

IF 2.7 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2022-06-24 DOI:10.1353/eca.2022.0004

R. Reis

引用次数: 35

Abstract

ABSTRACT:Inflation has an anchor in people's expectations of what its longrun value will be. If expectations persistently change, then the anchor is adrift; if they differ from the central bank's target, the anchor is lost. This paper uses data on expectations from market prices, from professional surveys, and from the cross-sectional distribution of household surveys to measure shifts in this anchor. The paper's main application is to the Great Inflation in the United States. The data suggest that the anchor started drifting as early as 1967 and that this could have been spotted well before policymakers noticed it. Other applications using expectations data from Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, the United States in the 1970s, and the United States in 2021 confirm the data's usefulness to measure the inflation anchor in real time.

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失去通胀锚

摘要:通货膨胀会影响人们对其长期价值的预期。如果期望不断变化，那么锚就会飘忽不定;如果他们偏离了央行的目标，锚就失去了。本文使用来自市场价格、专业调查和家庭调查横截面分布的预期数据来衡量这一锚点的变化。本文的主要应用是美国的大通货膨胀。数据显示，锚点早在1967年就开始漂移，而这可能在政策制定者注意到之前就被发现了。其他使用巴西、土耳其、南非、20世纪70年代美国和2021年美国预期数据的应用程序证实了该数据在实时衡量通胀锚点方面的实用性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) is a semi-annual academic conference and journal that pairs rigorous research with real-time policy analysis to address the most urgent economic challenges of the day. Working drafts of the papers are presented and discussed at conferences typically held twice each year, and the final versions of the papers and comments along with summaries of the general discussions are published in the journal several months later. The views expressed by the authors, discussants and conference participants in BPEA are strictly those of the authors, discussants and conference participants, and not of the Brookings Institution. As an independent think tank, the Brookings Institution does not take institutional positions on any issue.