Bounding the probabilities of benefit and harm through sensitivity parameters and proxies

Abstract

Abstract We present two methods for bounding the probabilities of benefit (a.k.a. the probability of necessity and sufficiency, i.e., the desired effect occurs if and only if exposed) and harm (i.e., the undesired effect occurs if and only if exposed) under unmeasured confounding. The first method computes the upper or lower bound of either probability as a function of the observed data distribution and two intuitive sensitivity parameters, which can then be presented to the analyst as a 2-D plot to assist in decision-making. The second method assumes the existence of a measured nondifferential proxy for the unmeasured confounder. Using this proxy, tighter bounds than the existing ones can be derived from just the observed data distribution.