Misspecified Politics and the Recurrence of Populism

IF 10.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI:10.1257/aer.20210154

Gilat Levy, R. Razin, Alwyn Young

引用次数: 43

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of political competition between two groups that differ in their subjective model of the data generating process for a common outcome. One group has a simpler model than the other group as they ignore some relevant policy variables. We show that policy cycles must arise and that simple world views—which can be interpreted as populist world views—imply extreme policy choices. Periods in which those with a more complex model govern increase the specification error of the simpler world view, leading the latter to overestimate the positive impact of a few extreme policy actions. (JEL D72, D83, K42)

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错误的政治与民粹主义的再现

我们开发了两个群体之间政治竞争的动态模型，这两个群体对共同结果的数据生成过程的主观模型不同。其中一组的模型比另一组简单，因为他们忽略了一些相关的策略变量。我们表明，政策周期必须出现，简单的世界观——可以被解释为民粹主义世界观——意味着极端的政策选择。那些拥有更复杂模型的人执政的时期增加了简单世界观的规范误差，导致后者高估了一些极端政策行动的积极影响。(凝胶d72, d83, k42)

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来源期刊

American Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

2.80%

发文量

122

期刊介绍： The American Economic Review (AER) stands as a prestigious general-interest economics journal. Founded in 1911, it holds the distinction of being one of the nation's oldest and most esteemed scholarly journals in economics. With a commitment to academic excellence, the AER releases 12 issues annually, featuring articles that span a wide spectrum of economic topics.