Production of round wood from planted forests and price of pulp and paper and other forestry purposes in southern Brazil

Abstract

The aim of the study is to analyze the production of round wood from planted forests and the price of pulp and paper and other forestry purposes in southern Brazil, from 2000 to 2019. In this study, we worked with historical series from secondary data collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics IBGE, referring to the produced and traded quantity in forestry (m³), forestry production value (one thousand dollars) and price ($/m³), obtained through the ratio between the production value and the respective produced quantities in each year. The silviculture production value (PV) is a derived variable calculated by the weighted average of quantity and average current price paid to the producer (m³), according to the harvest and commercialization periods of each product. The price evolution (P) was separated according to purpose and obtained through the quotient between the production value and respective quantities produced in each year. The trend models were estimated, in which annual growth rates of the real price and produced quantity were calculated for the two roundwood purposes in the evaluated period. Then, we sought to fit the results according to the possibilities of shift of the supply and demand curves. The results indicate that pulp and paper presented positive rates of produced quantity and price, of 5.8775 and 1.3704, respectively. The nomenclature for other purposes had a positive rate for the produced quantity (4.1929) and a negative rate for price (-0.3203). Thus, logwood for pulp and paper showed a dominant shift in the demand curve to the right, showing a rising market, while for other purposes, there was a dominant shift in supply to the right, corroborating the concept of positive variation in quantity and a negative variation in price. Given these results, it is important to highlight that the study refers to one federative unit in Brazil, which signals the recommendation that other similar studies be carried out in other states to better understand the impact of production and price of these purposes on the Brazilian market