{"title":"Short-run multiplier effects of military expenditures in NATO's Eastern Flank countries in 1999–2021","authors":"Łukasz Wiktor Olejnik","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2023.05.007","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using a newly created dataset of detailed and disaggregated military expenditures, this paper studies the impact of military expenditures on GDP changes in nine Central and Eastern European countries in 1999–2021. The cumulative fiscal multipliers of military expenditures estimated using the Local Projections method take values 0.6 on impact, 1.5–1.6 in the second and in the third year after shock and gradually decrease in subsequent years. They are higher during recession periods. Personnel military expenditures have relatively the highest multipliers among disaggregated military expenditures. Other military expenditures have positive, but lower than unity multipliers, while the multipliers of military equipment purchases are insignificant and close to zero. Cumulative multipliers of military expenditures during military build-up after the outbreak of the war in Donbas were lower than cumulative multipliers in the whole sample.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Comparative Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147596723000549","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Using a newly created dataset of detailed and disaggregated military expenditures, this paper studies the impact of military expenditures on GDP changes in nine Central and Eastern European countries in 1999–2021. The cumulative fiscal multipliers of military expenditures estimated using the Local Projections method take values 0.6 on impact, 1.5–1.6 in the second and in the third year after shock and gradually decrease in subsequent years. They are higher during recession periods. Personnel military expenditures have relatively the highest multipliers among disaggregated military expenditures. Other military expenditures have positive, but lower than unity multipliers, while the multipliers of military equipment purchases are insignificant and close to zero. Cumulative multipliers of military expenditures during military build-up after the outbreak of the war in Donbas were lower than cumulative multipliers in the whole sample.
期刊介绍:
The mission of the Journal of Comparative Economics is to lead the new orientations of research in comparative economics. Before 1989, the core of comparative economics was the comparison of economic systems with in particular the economic analysis of socialism in its different forms. In the last fifteen years, the main focus of interest of comparative economists has been the transition from socialism to capitalism.