Short-run multiplier effects of military expenditures in NATO's Eastern Flank countries in 1999–2021

IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Łukasz Wiktor Olejnik
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Using a newly created dataset of detailed and disaggregated military expenditures, this paper studies the impact of military expenditures on GDP changes in nine Central and Eastern European countries in 1999–2021. The cumulative fiscal multipliers of military expenditures estimated using the Local Projections method take values 0.6 on impact, 1.5–1.6 in the second and in the third year after shock and gradually decrease in subsequent years. They are higher during recession periods. Personnel military expenditures have relatively the highest multipliers among disaggregated military expenditures. Other military expenditures have positive, but lower than unity multipliers, while the multipliers of military equipment purchases are insignificant and close to zero. Cumulative multipliers of military expenditures during military build-up after the outbreak of the war in Donbas were lower than cumulative multipliers in the whole sample.

1999-2021 年北约东翼国家军事支出的短期乘数效应
本文利用新建立的详细分类军事支出数据集,研究了 1999-2021 年军事支出对九个中东欧国家国内生产总值变化的影响。使用地方预测法估算的军事支出累积财政乘数在冲击时为 0.6,在冲击后的第二年和第三年为 1.5-1.6,并在随后几年逐渐下降。在衰退期,这一数值会更高。在分类军事支出中,人员军事支出的乘数相对最高。其他军事支出的乘数为正值,但低于统一值,而军事装备采购的乘数不显著,接近于零。顿巴斯战争爆发后军事集结期间军事支出的累计乘数低于整个样本的累计乘数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
66
审稿时长
45 days
期刊介绍: The mission of the Journal of Comparative Economics is to lead the new orientations of research in comparative economics. Before 1989, the core of comparative economics was the comparison of economic systems with in particular the economic analysis of socialism in its different forms. In the last fifteen years, the main focus of interest of comparative economists has been the transition from socialism to capitalism.
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