The Long Jihad: The Boom–Bust Cycle behind Jihadist Durability

Abstract

One of the most frustrating features of modern jihadist insurgencies is their ability to endure and resurge, even after seeming defeats. What explains this jihadist resilience? In this paper, I present a new “boom–bust” economic theory for why jihadist groups can withstand serious losses, survive periods of decline, and then reclaim power. Using new evidence from Somalia, I demonstrate that jihadists learn how to adapt to fluctuations in their degree of territorial control, so that they can survive—and even thrive—during periods of decline. During a “boom” period, when jihadists enjoy a monopoly on force, they tax and govern as a proto-state. However, during a “bust,” when they are pushed out of power, jihadists shift their efforts to illicit business activities and insurgent warfare. When pressure abates, they again shift back to taxing and governing as a proto-state. This cyclical and long-term approach to order-making allows jihadists to adapt to changing battlefield conditions and survive serious setbacks. Jihadists establish their proto-states to varying degrees, governing in pockets and coves wherever and whenever the opportunities present themselves. They are as orderly as they can afford to be.