ASSESSMENT OF LAND COVER CHANGES DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC CAUSES IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREA OF ISHKOMAN WATERSHED, GILGIT, PAKISTAN

Abstract

Remote Sensing (RS) provides the best ways to monitor temporal changes and to understand land use dynamics. Remote sensing analysis can be further enhanced when community perception regarding major drivers of change is integrated. The present study was an attempt to assess the land use land cover changes in the Ishkoman watershed in the Ghizer district. The study explored Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 images to assess the LULC dynamics from 1998 to 2018, and also used questionnaires for community perception regarding LULC changes in the past two decades. Supervised classification was used to monitor changes between 1998 and 2018 and the maximum likelihood technique was used to categorize the pixels into six classes: vegetation/forest area, bare rocks, water bodies, glaciers/snow area, rivers, water, and agriculture. Regarding the questionnaires, the correlation matrix and regression models were developed between independent variables (population, land type cleared, and extra land required for new family members) and dependent variables (land use dynamics factors and socio-economic variables). The results showed that all six land cover classes have shown temporal changes between 1998-2018 and the most significant change was observed in forests and pastures (which decreased from 18.7% to 5.9 %). Similarly, glaciers, water, rivers, and agriculture have changed from 13.1, 6.5, 9.3, 1.5 to 15.8, 4.0, 11.32, 3.1, respectively between 1998-2018. The largest change was observed in bare rocks which increased from 50.2 % to 60.06%. Moreover, temporal NDVI analysis showed a decrease in vegetation cover (conversion to bare rocks) between 1998-2018. The questionnaire results revealed that the highest correlation was shown between population increase and decrease in crop production (R2 = -0.348), whereas the lowest correlation was found in population increase and population access to bus stops (R2 = -0.167). Similarly, the highest correlation was found between access to roads and markets (R2 = 0.349) and dependent variable (land type cleared), whereas the lowest correlobserved in access to water resources (R2 = -0.021). The study concluded that land use land cover has been significantly changed from 1998 to 2018 in the Ishkoman Watershed. The study suggested more in-depth research to examine land use land cover changes at finer scales by using high resolution satellite imagery, and conducting details surveys regarding the underlying anthropogenic causes of land use dynamics.