Discrete-Event Simulation Engineering in Evaluation of Medical Treatment Capability Against Biochemical Terrorist Attacks

Abstract

Large-scale victims would flock to the nearest hospital in a short period of time against biochemical terrorist attacks. It better treat these victims within the “Golden Hour” as more as possibly. In this paper, we proposed a new method to predict the medical treatment capability with two steps. First of all, we built a model to calculate the number of victims arriving in hospital with Monte Carlo Simulation engineering method, and then simulated this model to generate the victims-flow arriving in hospital and made chi-square test to find out that these data distribution follow Poisson distribution approximately. Secondly, we built another model to calculate the medical treatment capability based on the generated data from the first simulation. As a result, we can get the capability and main factors influencing it. The parameters in these models and procedures can be adjusted depending on specific scenarios, so that they can be integrated in decision support systems of relevant engineering areas and play an auxiliary role for decision-makers in an emergency management.