Evaluation of net radiation using the autoregressive models with higher orders over Nigeria

Abstract

In this study, monthly surface net radiation data were collected from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Lagos covering a duration of 31 years (1983- 2013) spatially distributed across the four climatic regions: Semi-Arid (SAR), Sub-humid Dry (SHD), Sub-humid Humid (SHH) and Humid (HUM) regions. The net radiation was evaluated using different forms of Auto-Regressive models – AR {p} where p is the number of orders of the auto-regressive. The analysis showed that AR {4} performed best in all the regions and stations investigated. Regionally, AR {4} has maximum values of coefficient of determination of 0.8127 in HUM, 0.7876 in SHH, 0.5765 in SHD and 0.7973 in SAR regions. It can be concluded that the higher the order of auto-regressive models, the more accurate estimation of net radiation it will give irrespective of location in Nigeria.