Probabilistic zoning of hydraulic performance of water distribution network by applying key parameter uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper, first, the uncertainty of key input parameters such as pipe diameter and roughness and also nodal demand was generated and then they were simultaneously applied to the model, and the hydraulic performance (NPRI index) of the network was evaluated. By defining network performance levels based on network reliability, probabilistic zoning maps were obtained hourly all day long and yearly in the operational period. For this purpose, the MCS method was used to simulate the parameter uncertainty, and the EPANET software was used to simulate the hydraulic performance of the network by programming in MATLAB. The study was performed on the Kaleybar WDN using different values of the Coefficient of Variation (CV). The results of yearly probabilistic zoning maps of the network showed that in the cases with a CV value of 10 and 20 percent, the network had an acceptable service level with a higher probability in the 23rd and 20th years respectively. In general, the study of hydraulic zoning maps of the network at different hours during a day and in different years during the operation period makes it possible to decide on the implementation of operational plans or reconstruction and renovation and also determine the critical operational years.