Prediction of silicon content in the hot metal using Bayesian networks and probabilistic reasoning

Abstract

The blast furnace is the principal method of producing cast iron. In the production of cast iron, the control of silicon is vital because this impurity is harmful to almost all steels. Artificial neural networks with Bayesian regularization are more robust than traditional back-propagation networks and can reduce or eliminate the need for tedious cross-validation. Bayesian regularization is a mathematical process that converts a nonlinear regression into a "well-posed" statistical problem in the manner of ridge regression. The main objective of this work was to develop an artificial neural network to predict silicon content in hot metal by varying the number of neurons in the hidden layer by 10, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 75, and 100 neurons. The results show that all neural networks converged and presented reliable results, neural networks with 20, 25, and 30 neurons showed the best overall results. However, In short, Bayesian neural networks can be used in practice because the actual values correlate excellently with the values calculated by the neural network.