Applying the Pooled Mean Group Panel ARDL Technique to Analyse the Impact of Uncertainty on Economic Growth in the ASEAN-5

International Journal of Economics and Management Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI:10.47836/ijeam.17.1.09

Yong SOOK LU, Goh LIM THYE, Shahabudin Sharifah muhairah, Shantha Selva Kumari

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Abstract

The correlation between uncertainty and economic growth is an interesting research topic that has attracted different views from many scholars. The present study aimed to empirically analyse the linkages among numerous uncertainties, such as; the uncertainty index (UI), the consumer price index (CPI), foreign direct investment inflows (FDI), trade openness (TO), innovation (INNO) on economic growth (GDP) in the ASEAN-5 countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, The Philippines and Thailand between 1960 and 2020. The association between economic growth and its determinants over the long and short-term was estimated using the pooled mean group (PMG) panel autoregressive distributed lag (ADRL) technique. The findings showed that all computed coefficients had predicted signs and were statistically significant in the long run. In addition, economic growth was significantly impacted by FDI and the uncertainty index, both in the short and long term. The uncertainty index, CPI, FDI, innovation, and economic growth, thus, had a unidirectional relationship. On the other hand, no reciprocal relationship existed between trade openness and economic growth for the ASEAN-5 nations.

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应用混合平均组面板ARDL技术分析不确定性对东盟五国经济增长的影响

不确定性与经济增长的相关性是一个有趣的研究课题，吸引了许多学者的不同观点。本研究旨在实证分析众多不确定性之间的联系，例如;不确定性指数(UI)、消费者价格指数(CPI)、外国直接投资流入(FDI)、贸易开放度(TO)、创新(INNO)对东盟五国(马来西亚、印度尼西亚、新加坡、菲律宾和泰国)1960年至2020年经济增长(GDP)的影响。使用混合平均组(PMG)面板自回归分布滞后(ADRL)技术估计了经济增长与其长期和短期决定因素之间的关联。结果表明，所有计算的系数都有预测的迹象，并且在长期的统计意义上是显著的。此外，无论是短期还是长期，经济增长都受到FDI和不确定性指数的显著影响。因此，不确定性指数、CPI、FDI、创新与经济增长之间存在单向关系。另一方面，东盟五国的贸易开放和经济增长之间不存在互惠关系。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Economics and Management Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal focuses on economics and management issues. The main subjects for economics cover national macroeconomic issues, international economic issues, interactions of national and regional economies, microeconomics and macroeconomics policies. The journal also considers thought-leading substantive research in the finance discipline. The main subjects for management include management decisions, Small Medium Enterprises (SME) practices, corporate social policies, digital marketing strategies and strategic management. The journal emphasises empirical studies with practical applications; examinations of theoretical and methodological developments. The journal is committed to publishing the high quality articles from economics and management perspectives. It is a triannual journal published in April, August and December and all articles submitted are in English. IJEM follows a double-blind peer-review process, whereby authors do not know reviewers and vice versa. Peer review is fundamental to the scientific publication process and the dissemination of sound science.