Modelling of mould/yeast growth on Korean braised lotus root cuts as a primary quality index in storage

Abstract

Mould/yeast growth on Korean braised lotus root cuts, a primary quality deterioration factor for shelf life determination, was monitored during storage at constant temperatures and was modelled as a function of temperature to estimate microbial spoilage under constant and/or dynamic storage conditions expected in a foodservice system. With help of a bootstrapping method to generate many resampled data sets of microbial plate counts, 1000 parameter sets for Baranyi's model in the form of differential equations were estimated. The temperature dependence of the primary model parameters was provided together with their confidence limits. When the temperature-dependent parameters were incorporated into the differential equations for microbial growth, prediction of mould/yeast count change under constant and fluctuating temperature conditions could be provided with a confidence band close to the experimental data as a useful tool for the shelf life control.