Retrospective Statistical Study of Dependencies in The Formation of Tourist Flows

Abstract

Introduction. The activity of tourism establishments takes place in conditions of intense competition and changing dynamics of the tourism market influenced by various factors. The phenomenon of tourism lies in its complexity and high sensitivity to changes in the external environment. In order to determine the directions for the development of the tourism industry, it is necessary to understand the factors that influence the formation of tourist flows and forecast their changes in the defined perspective, which justifies the relevance of applying statistical research methods. Aim and tasks. The aim of the study: based on statistical information and methods of statistical analysis, to identify the dynamics of changes in tourist flows during specific periods of the new reality and to refute or confirm the hypotheses put forward in the research. Main tasks are: to identify periods of new reality characterized by special conditions of tourist flows formation; to formulate research hypotheses; to identify features of major trends in tourist flows for confirmation or refutation of the proposed hypotheses. Results. According to the developed methodology, periods were identified according to one leading feature that could form the trend of tourist activity in Ukraine for: the period of development of stabilization and economic growth (2000-2008); the period of coverage of the economic crisis and its relative overcoming (2009-2013); Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) period and subsequent stabilization of economic growth (2014-2019); period of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic downturn, isolation (2020-2021); martial law (since February 24, 2022). The periods identified in the study formed excellent conditions for tourism, which affected the volume of tourist flows, as a result of which the forecast indicators will not correspond to the actual ones. Domestic tourism flows are more influenced by GDP per person, while outbound tourism flows are more influenced by available income per person. Conclusions. The applied methods of mathematical forecasting allowed for the verification of the hypotheses regarding the causes that influenced or did not influence tourist flows as the resulting indicator. The general outcome of the research is the confirmation of the hypotheses proposed, which position the tourism industry as particularly susceptible to the influences of various factors that can significantly impact tourism activity both in the context of tourist flow formation and the priorities of tourism enterprises' operations.