Models of Risk Measurement and Control in Power Generation Investment

Hong-xing Sun, Zhong-fu Tan
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引用次数: 7

Abstract

In the electricity market environment, Power generation companies are faced with much uncertainty and greater risks. It is a realistic problem for power generation companies to optimize their investment decisions and minimize risks in investment of engineering projects. In this paper, Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measurement techniques are used to establish models of risk assessment and risk control for power generation companies to invest under multi-markets and multi-types power units. Optimization models of risk control based on two criterions can be used by power generation companies in different electricity markets and different types of power generation units to distribute there investment in order to maximize benefits and minimize risk value. The case demonstrates the validity of these models.

发电投资风险度量与控制模型
在电力市场环境下,发电企业面临着很大的不确定性和较大的风险。在工程项目投资中,如何优化投资决策、降低投资风险是发电企业面临的现实问题。本文运用条件风险值(CVaR)测度技术,建立了发电企业在多市场、多类型发电机组下投资的风险评估和风险控制模型。基于两种准则的风险控制优化模型可用于不同电力市场和不同类型发电机组的发电企业进行投资分配,以实现效益最大化和风险值最小化。实例验证了这些模型的有效性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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