Geopolitical fragmentation and trade

IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Rodolfo G. Campos , Julia Estefania-Flores , Davide Furceri , Jacopo Timini
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

What are the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation on trade? We answer this question by using a canonical general equilibrium trade model to quantify the trade and welfare effects stemming from world trade fragmentation along geopolitical borders. To calibrate the size of the increase in trade costs, we use a new aggregate measure of trade restrictions that spans over the last 70 years and includes up to 157 countries and estimate the impact on trade of very broad trade policy restrictions in a theory-consistent structural gravity framework. We estimate that a fragmentation into three different trade blocs (Western, Eastern, Neutral)—defined according to how countries voted on the suspension of the rights of membership of the Russian Federation in the United Nations Human Rights Council because of the invasion of Ukraine— would have important effects on trade between them, reducing trade flows by 22%–57%, in the most extreme scenarios. Welfare losses would be the largest in the Eastern bloc, where the median country would experience a welfare loss of up to 3.4%.

地缘政治分裂与贸易
地缘政治分化对贸易有何经济影响?为了回答这个问题,我们使用了一个典型的一般均衡贸易模型来量化地缘政治边界造成的世界贸易分裂对贸易和福利的影响。为了校准贸易成本增加的规模,我们使用了一种新的贸易限制总衡量标准,该标准跨越过去 70 年,包含多达 157 个国家,并在理论一致的结构引力框架内估计了非常广泛的贸易政策限制对贸易的影响。我们估计,分裂成三个不同的贸易集团(西方、东方、中立)--根据各国对因入侵乌克兰而暂停俄罗斯联邦在联合国人权理事会成员资格的投票情况来定义--将对它们之间的贸易产生重要影响,在最极端的情况下,贸易流量将减少 22%-57%。东部集团的福利损失最大,中位数国家的福利损失将高达 3.4%。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
66
审稿时长
45 days
期刊介绍: The mission of the Journal of Comparative Economics is to lead the new orientations of research in comparative economics. Before 1989, the core of comparative economics was the comparison of economic systems with in particular the economic analysis of socialism in its different forms. In the last fifteen years, the main focus of interest of comparative economists has been the transition from socialism to capitalism.
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