Targeting Transients: The Strategic Logic for Terrorist Targeting of Internally Displaced Persons

Abstract

The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) around the world has risen to astronomical levels—approximately 33 million individuals were driven from their homes in 2019 alone. Yet, despite the history of violence which has been perpetrated against these IDPs, little research has been done to uncover the strategic logic for attacking these transient individuals. This paper seeks to fill that gap in the literature through the lens of the West African insurgency known as Boko Haram. While the group has been noted for its tendency to conduct suicide bombings, it has recently added IDP camps to its target profile, in a unique consistent and sustained effort against IDPs by a terrorist organization. In analyzing this case study, I ask: why do terrorist organizations target IDPs in the first place? Is there any existing theory of target selection which explains the targeting of IDP camps at high frequencies? Leveraging a unique dataset tracking all of Boko Haram's suicide bombings from April 2011 to August 2020, this article tests three theories of terrorist target selection to explain this phenomenon. First, it illustrates that theories of efficiency and casualty maximization cannot explain Boko Haram's IDP camp attacks, given the high rates of failure and low rates of casualties. Second, it shows that Boko Haram's targeting practices cannot be understood solely by ideology, as the group only makes religious decisions about who can be victimized, not who should. Instead, the article argues that signaling theory should be extended to target selection—specifically, that targeting of IDP camps can be viewed as part of a broader signaling campaign, which has motivated the group's overall use of suicide bombing. Such insight suggests that signaling theories may guide target selection over time for many terrorist organizations, to communicate that the local and international community are powerless and that the terrorist group cannot be defeated.