The evolutionary dynamics of expectations: Interactions among codes in inter-human communications

Abstract

Double contingency-each of us (Ego) expects others (Alter) to entertain expectations as we entertain them ourselves-can be considered as the micro-operation of an above-individual (i.e., social) logic of expectations. Meaning is provided to events from the perspective of hindsight, but with reference to horizons of meaning. Whereas "natural selection" is based on genotypes that are observable (like DNA), cultural selection mechanisms are not hard-wired, but evolve. The "genotypes" of cultural evolution are codes in the communication which can operate as selections upon one another. Local instantiations shape trajectories; regimes operate as selection pressure with reference to the next-order horizons of meaning. These orders of expectations can operate incursively and hyper-incursively against the arrow of time and thus generate redundancies: (i) horizons of meaning can be expected to overlap and (ii) distinctions generate new options enlarging the maximum capacities. Information theory and the theory of anticipatory systems can be used for the elaboration of operations against the arrow of time. New options can be a synergetic effect of interactions among codes in the communication and serve as sources of wealth in a knowledge-based economy.