Prior Probabilities and the Age Threshold Problem: First and Second Molar Development

4区 生物学 Q2 Medicine
L. Konigsberg, S. Frankenberg, Valerie Sgheiza, H. Liversidge
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT Dental development has been used to assess whether an individual may be below or above an age that serves as a legal threshold. This study used development of the first and second mandibular molars from a large sample of individuals (N = 2,676) to examine the age threshold for minimum age of criminal responsibility. A bivariate ordered probit model was applied to dental scores following the Moorrees et al. (1963) system, with the addition of a crypt-absent/present stage. Then a 10-fold cross-validation within each of the sexes showed that the bivariate models produce unbiased estimates of age but are heteroskedastic (with increasing spread of the estimates against actual age). To address the age threshold problem, a normal prior centered on the threshold is assumed, and the product of the prior and the likelihood is integrated up to the age threshold and again starting at the age threshold. The ratio of these two integrals is a Bayes factor, which because the prior is symmetric around the threshold, can also be interpreted as the posterior odds that an individual is over versus under the age threshold. It was necessary to assume an unreasonably high standard deviation of age in the prior to achieve posterior odds that were well above “evens.” These results indicate that dental developmental evidence from the first and second molars is of limited use in examining the question of whether an individual is below or over the minimum age of criminal responsibility. As the third molar is more variable in its development than the first two molars, the question of dental evidence regarding the age of majority (generally 18 years) remains problematic.
先验概率和年龄阈值问题:第一和第二摩尔发展
牙齿发育已被用来评估一个人是否可能低于或高于作为法定门槛的年龄。本研究从大量个体样本(N = 2676)中使用第一和第二下颌磨牙的发育来检查最低刑事责任年龄的年龄阈值。根据Moorrees等人(1963)的系统,将双变量有序概率模型应用于牙科评分,并增加了隐窝缺失/存在阶段。然后在每个性别中进行10倍交叉验证,表明双变量模型产生了无偏的年龄估计,但具有异方差(估计与实际年龄的差距越来越大)。为了解决年龄阈值问题,假设一个以阈值为中心的正常先验,并将先验和似然的乘积集成到年龄阈值,并再次从年龄阈值开始。这两个积分的比值是一个贝叶斯因子,由于先验是围绕阈值对称的,它也可以被解释为一个人超过或低于年龄阈值的后验概率。为了获得远高于“均匀”的后验赔率,有必要假设先前年龄的标准偏差过高。这些结果表明,来自第一和第二磨牙的牙齿发育证据在检查一个人是否低于或超过最低刑事责任年龄的问题上是有限的。由于第三颗磨牙的发育比前两颗磨牙更容易变化,关于成年年龄(一般为18岁)的牙科证据问题仍然存在问题。
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来源期刊
Human Biology
Human Biology 生物-生物学
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
88
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Human Biology publishes original scientific articles, brief communications, letters to the editor, and review articles on the general topic of biological anthropology. Our main focus is understanding human biological variation and human evolution through a broad range of approaches. We encourage investigators to submit any study on human biological diversity presented from an evolutionary or adaptive perspective. Priority will be given to interdisciplinary studies that seek to better explain the interaction between cultural processes and biological processes in our evolution. Methodological papers are also encouraged. Any computational approach intended to summarize cultural variation is encouraged. Studies that are essentially descriptive or concern only a limited geographic area are acceptable only when they have a wider relevance to understanding human biological variation. Manuscripts may cover any of the following disciplines, once the anthropological focus is apparent: human population genetics, evolutionary and genetic demography, quantitative genetics, evolutionary biology, ancient DNA studies, biological diversity interpreted in terms of adaptation (biometry, physical anthropology), and interdisciplinary research linking biological and cultural diversity (inferred from linguistic variability, ethnological diversity, archaeological evidence, etc.).
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