Projected climate risks for rice crops in Casamance, Southern Senegal

Abstract

The climate risk concept is crucial for agricultural production in vulnerable regions. In this work the climate conditions that influence the climate risk for rice crop in Casamance are presented. The future occurrence of drought and extreme precipitation conditions in the most critical phases of the rice plant evolution has been evaluated. Regional climate models (RCMs) outputs projections from CORDEX under two scenarios emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the mid of the twenty-first century were used to highlight the change in four extreme climate indices in the germination (JJ) and the flowering (Oct) stages of the rice plant in the Casamance region. The results suggest a potential risk in rice crop yield losses in the germination phase due to persistent drought conditions in the mid-twenty-first century namely in the low Casamance and the Middle Casamance; also increasing future occurrence of heavy rainfall may cause juvenile rice plant submersion that could contribute to rice production reduction. The flowering stage will present less climate risk situation in the future; the distribution of drought conditions seems to follow the normal north-south distribution; however hazardous extreme conditions could be expected in the future. There is a need to better plan agronomic and water management policies.   Key words: Regional climate model, future projection, extreme precipitation, climate risk, rice crop, Casamance.