A Winning Team of Losers: The Logic of Jihadist Coalitions in Civil Wars

IF 1.7 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Aisha Ahmad, O. Diallo
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Abstract

For small groups fighting in multi-actor civil wars, joining a larger coalition is often a way to survive. Yet, it is not only rebel or pro-government non-state armed groups that form alliances; in many cases, jihadists have been surprisingly successful in building winning coalitions in civil wars. This is puzzling because jihadists attract fierce international opposition and are therefore very risky teams to join. Jihadists are also typically excluded from the political process, which means that they are unlikely to enjoy the spoils of a peace agreement. Why then would any local groups choose to join jihadist coalitions, rather than other rebel or pro-government coalitions in a conflict theatre? In this paper, we argue that ideology fails to explain this choice; rather, we contend that competition among rebel and pro-government coalitions inevitably produces winners and losers. Under these conditions, jihadists serve as an attractive spoiler coalition, drawing support from groups that see no chance of benefitting from an existing or future peace agreement. By offering these ‘losers’ a wider network and reference group, jihadists can expand their coalition base and territorial reach. By courting support from marginalized groups across ethnic and tribal lines, jihadists can create a winning coalition out of a diverse mix of losers.
失败者的胜利团队:内战中圣战联盟的逻辑
对于在多方参与的内战中作战的小团体来说,加入一个更大的联盟往往是一种生存方式。然而,形成联盟的不仅仅是叛军或亲政府的非国家武装组织;在许多情况下,圣战分子在内战中建立获胜联盟方面取得了惊人的成功。这是令人困惑的,因为圣战分子吸引了激烈的国际反对,因此加入圣战组织是非常危险的。圣战分子通常也被排除在政治进程之外,这意味着他们不太可能享受和平协议带来的好处。那么,为什么会有地方组织选择加入圣战联盟,而不是在冲突地区加入其他叛军或亲政府联盟呢?在本文中,我们认为意识形态无法解释这种选择;相反,我们认为反对派和亲政府联盟之间的竞争不可避免地会产生赢家和输家。在这种情况下,圣战分子充当了一个有吸引力的破坏者联盟,从那些认为没有机会从现有或未来的和平协议中获益的组织那里获得支持。通过向这些“失败者”提供更广泛的网络和参考群体,圣战分子可以扩大他们的联盟基地和领土范围。通过争取跨种族、跨部落边缘群体的支持,圣战分子可以从形形色色的失败者中创建一个获胜的联盟。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Global Security Studies
Journal of Global Security Studies INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
34
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