Was Hurricane Sandy the ‘Fat Tail’ of Climate Change?

Abstract

Science itself has a hard time grappling with fat tails. The scientific process largely works through repetition, which by definition does not apply here. Still, science can help us model fat tails that reach far beyond human imagination. Statisticians and economists have discovered patterns confirming the existence of fat tails in everything from stock market returns to extreme weather events. A 1-in-100-year event is indeed rare, by definition. But it may well dwarf all else in impact. And by now we know that 1-in-100-year storms — the hallmark often used for infrastructure — may be showing up much more frequently.