A precarious regional flashpoint

IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Aries A. Arugay
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First, the country's economy is heavily intertwined with both China and Taiwan. China is the second-ranked trade partner of the Philippines with US$6.63 billion worth of trade in 2021. That same year, Taiwan ranked 9th with $2.5 billion worth of trade. It is highly likely that the Philippines will suffer a major economic blow if cross-strait relations reach its lowest point. Moreover, there are 150,000 overseas Filipino workers in Taiwan and around the same number are in Hong Kong. They will likely need to be repatriated in any militarized conflict which could almost be a logistical nightmare of epic proportions for the Philippine government. Given the global economic slowdown and economic hardship currently experienced by the country, another economic downturn caused by geopolitical conflict is the last thing the country needs.</p><p>Apart from the massive economic implications of the crisis in the strait, the Philippines might also be at the receiving end of a major humanitarian crisis. A protracted military conflict will possibly generate thousands if not millions of refugees. Among ASEAN countries, it is the Philippines that signed all major international conventions on sheltering and protecting stateless persons. Historically, the country has been a haven for refugees and other displaced persons. This has been the historical identity of the Philippines in the past and it will not shirk from opening its borders to the Taiwanese people of the need arises.</p><p>Another strategic imperative for the Philippines is its shared identity as a small state that also has a territorial and maritime dispute with China. Though the 2016 Arbitral Award has resolved this dispute in favor of the Philippines, China had remained adamant on the triviality of this piece of international law and has continued to assert its dominant presence in the West Philippine Sea. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is too near an event for the Philippine government to forget that undue intrusion and even invasion of a superpower to a less powerful country has no place in 21st century international relations. Thus, the Philippines and other neighboring states should not simply dismiss the need for solidarity against irresponsible and undue behavior guided by the wanton exercise of military strength against sovereign nations.</p><p><i>Asian Politics &amp; Policy (APP)</i> has published numerous articles on Taiwan over the years. Schreer (<span>2017</span>) argued that cross-strait relations have been fraught with hostility since the election of Democratic Progressive Party-led governments since 2016. Strategies of coercion employed by Beijing are “double-edged swords” as unification is being resisted by Taiwan under President Tsai Ing-wen. In another article, Chen (<span>2019</span>) discussed how US policy under the Trump administration has greatly favored Taiwan to check Chin's growing regional power in the Indo-Pacific. It remains to be seen whether the current Biden administration could match his predecessor, but the recent trip of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled the elevation of Taiwan relations among key US policymakers. Finally, Wang et al., (<span>2021</span>) critically examined the 1992 consensus as the pillar of cross-strait relations. Domestic public opinion in Taiwan remains supportive of the consensus, many Taiwanese believe that is an agreement between two sovereign countries and many do not support the interpretation of the Kuomintang Party.</p><p>In this issue of <i>APP</i>, we are pleased to publish original research articles that covered topics ranging from political trust in the Philippines, social policy in South Korea, administrative reforms in China, and housing policy in India. 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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The possible crisis in the Taiwan Strait is a looming regional flashpoint that could potentially drag many Asian states into an armed international conflict. Countries like the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and others might become frontline states in any militarized confrontation involving Taiwan. Beyond geographic proximity, the intensified superpower rivalry between the United States and China substantially frames the current precarity of the regional security environment.

Restraint and responsible behavior must remain the guiding norms of behavior for all states in the Indo-Pacific over the Taiwan strait. The repercussions in the region and the globe are too serious and far-reaching if conflict erupts. The Philippines, for example, will suffer a lot. First, the country's economy is heavily intertwined with both China and Taiwan. China is the second-ranked trade partner of the Philippines with US$6.63 billion worth of trade in 2021. That same year, Taiwan ranked 9th with $2.5 billion worth of trade. It is highly likely that the Philippines will suffer a major economic blow if cross-strait relations reach its lowest point. Moreover, there are 150,000 overseas Filipino workers in Taiwan and around the same number are in Hong Kong. They will likely need to be repatriated in any militarized conflict which could almost be a logistical nightmare of epic proportions for the Philippine government. Given the global economic slowdown and economic hardship currently experienced by the country, another economic downturn caused by geopolitical conflict is the last thing the country needs.

Apart from the massive economic implications of the crisis in the strait, the Philippines might also be at the receiving end of a major humanitarian crisis. A protracted military conflict will possibly generate thousands if not millions of refugees. Among ASEAN countries, it is the Philippines that signed all major international conventions on sheltering and protecting stateless persons. Historically, the country has been a haven for refugees and other displaced persons. This has been the historical identity of the Philippines in the past and it will not shirk from opening its borders to the Taiwanese people of the need arises.

Another strategic imperative for the Philippines is its shared identity as a small state that also has a territorial and maritime dispute with China. Though the 2016 Arbitral Award has resolved this dispute in favor of the Philippines, China had remained adamant on the triviality of this piece of international law and has continued to assert its dominant presence in the West Philippine Sea. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is too near an event for the Philippine government to forget that undue intrusion and even invasion of a superpower to a less powerful country has no place in 21st century international relations. Thus, the Philippines and other neighboring states should not simply dismiss the need for solidarity against irresponsible and undue behavior guided by the wanton exercise of military strength against sovereign nations.

Asian Politics & Policy (APP) has published numerous articles on Taiwan over the years. Schreer (2017) argued that cross-strait relations have been fraught with hostility since the election of Democratic Progressive Party-led governments since 2016. Strategies of coercion employed by Beijing are “double-edged swords” as unification is being resisted by Taiwan under President Tsai Ing-wen. In another article, Chen (2019) discussed how US policy under the Trump administration has greatly favored Taiwan to check Chin's growing regional power in the Indo-Pacific. It remains to be seen whether the current Biden administration could match his predecessor, but the recent trip of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled the elevation of Taiwan relations among key US policymakers. Finally, Wang et al., (2021) critically examined the 1992 consensus as the pillar of cross-strait relations. Domestic public opinion in Taiwan remains supportive of the consensus, many Taiwanese believe that is an agreement between two sovereign countries and many do not support the interpretation of the Kuomintang Party.

In this issue of APP, we are pleased to publish original research articles that covered topics ranging from political trust in the Philippines, social policy in South Korea, administrative reforms in China, and housing policy in India. We hope that our journal can be a good academic medium for serious and rigorous debates and discussions on public policies and international affairs in Asia.

一个不稳定的地区爆发点
台湾海峡可能出现的危机是一个迫在眉睫的地区热点,可能会将许多亚洲国家拖入国际武装冲突。菲律宾、日本、韩国、越南和其他国家可能会成为任何涉及台湾的军事对抗的前线国家。除了地理上的邻近,美国和中国之间日益激烈的超级大国竞争在很大程度上构成了当前地区安全环境的不稳定。约束和负责任的行为必须仍然是台湾海峡上所有印太国家的行为准则。如果冲突爆发,对该地区和全球的影响将过于严重和深远。例如,菲律宾将遭受巨大损失。首先,这个国家的经济与中国和台湾都紧密相连。中国是菲律宾排名第二的贸易伙伴,2021年贸易额为66.3亿美元。同年,台湾以25亿美元的贸易额排名第九。如果两岸关系达到最低点,菲律宾极有可能遭受重大经济打击。此外,台湾有15万菲律宾海外劳工,香港也有同样数量的菲律宾海外劳工。他们可能需要在任何军事化冲突中被遣返,这对菲律宾政府来说几乎是一场史诗般的后勤噩梦。鉴于全球经济放缓和该国目前面临的经济困难,地缘政治冲突导致的另一次经济衰退是该国最不需要的。除了海峡危机带来的巨大经济影响外,菲律宾可能也处于一场重大人道主义危机的接收端。旷日持久的军事冲突可能会造成数千甚至数百万难民。在东盟国家中,菲律宾签署了关于庇护和保护无国籍人的所有主要国际公约。从历史上看,该国一直是难民和其他流离失所者的避难所。这是菲律宾过去的历史身份,它不会回避向台湾人民开放边境的需要。菲律宾的另一个战略当务之急是其作为一个小国的共同身份,该国与中国也有领土和海洋争端。尽管2016年的仲裁裁决以有利于菲律宾的方式解决了这一争端,但中国仍然坚持这一国际法的琐碎性,并继续坚持其在西菲律宾海的主导地位。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的事件太近了,菲律宾政府不会忘记,在21世纪的国际关系中,超级大国对一个实力较弱的国家的不当入侵甚至入侵是没有立足之地的。因此,菲律宾和其他邻国不应简单地无视团结一致反对针对主权国家肆意行使军事力量的不负责任和不当行为的必要性。亚洲政治;政策(APP)多年来发表了许多关于台湾的文章。施里尔(2017)认为,自2016年民进党领导的政府选举以来,两岸关系一直充满敌意。北京采取的胁迫策略是“双刃剑”,因为统一正受到蔡英文总统领导下的台湾的抵制。在另一篇文章中,陈(2019)讨论了特朗普政府领导下的美国政策如何非常有利于台湾遏制中国在印太地区日益增长的地区实力。现任拜登政府是否能与前任匹敌还有待观察,但美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西最近的访问标志着美国主要政策制定者之间台湾关系的提升。最后,王等人(2021)批判性地审视了作为两岸关系支柱的九二共识。台湾国内舆论仍然支持这一共识,许多台湾人认为这是两个主权国家之间的协议,许多人不支持国民党的解释。在本期APP中,我们很高兴发表原创研究文章,涵盖菲律宾的政治信任、韩国的社会政策、,中国的行政改革和印度的住房政策。我们希望我们的期刊能够成为一个很好的学术媒介,就亚洲的公共政策和国际事务进行严肃而严谨的辩论和讨论。
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来源期刊
Asian Politics & Policy
Asian Politics & Policy POLITICAL SCIENCE-
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