Self-induced collision risk of the Starlink constellation based on long-term orbital evolution analysis

IF 2.7 1区物理与天体物理 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Astrodynamics Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI:10.1007/s42064-023-0171-7

Wei Zhang, Xiuhong Wang, Wen Cui, Zhi Zhao, Sirui Chen

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Abstract

The deployment of mega constellations has had a significant effect on the compounding space debris environment, increasing the number of on-orbit objects in all conditions and damaging the stability of the space debris environment. The increased density of space objects is associated with an increased risk of on-orbit collisions. Collision risk exists not only between a mega constellation and the space debris environment but also inside a mega constellation. In this study, we used the Starlink constellation to investigate the self-induced collision risk caused by malfunctioning satellites. First, we analyzed the conjunction condition between malfunctioning and operative satellites based on long-term orbital evolution characteristics. The collision probability was then calculated based on the conjunction analysis results. The results show that malfunctioning satellites in Phase 1 cause an 86.2% self-induced collision probability based on a malfunctioning rate of 1%, which is close to the collision probability caused by objects larger than 6 cm during five years of service. Therefore, self-induced collisions are another important risk factor for the Starlink constellation.

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基于长期轨道演化分析的星链星座自感碰撞风险

巨型星座的部署对复杂的空间碎片环境产生了重大影响，增加了各种条件下在轨物体的数量，并破坏了空间碎片环境的稳定性。空间物体密度的增加与在轨碰撞风险的增加有关。碰撞风险不仅存在于巨型星座和空间碎片环境之间，而且也存在于大型星座内部。在这项研究中，我们使用星链星座来研究由故障卫星引起的自发碰撞风险。首先，基于长期轨道演化特征，分析了故障卫星与运行卫星的结合条件。然后基于结合分析结果来计算碰撞概率。结果表明，在故障率为1%的基础上，第一阶段的故障卫星造成86.2%的自诱导碰撞概率，这与服务五年期间大于6厘米的物体造成的碰撞概率接近。因此，自诱导碰撞是星链星座的另一个重要风险因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Astrodynamics Engineering-Aerospace Engineering

CiteScore

6.90

自引率

34.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Astrodynamics is a peer-reviewed international journal that is co-published by Tsinghua University Press and Springer. The high-quality peer-reviewed articles of original research, comprehensive review, mission accomplishments, and technical comments in all fields of astrodynamics will be given priorities for publication. In addition, related research in astronomy and astrophysics that takes advantages of the analytical and computational methods of astrodynamics is also welcome. Astrodynamics would like to invite all of the astrodynamics specialists to submit their research articles to this new journal. Currently, the scope of the journal includes, but is not limited to:Fundamental orbital dynamicsSpacecraft trajectory optimization and space mission designOrbit determination and prediction, autonomous orbital navigationSpacecraft attitude determination, control, and dynamicsGuidance and control of spacecraft and space robotsSpacecraft constellation design and formation flyingModelling, analysis, and optimization of innovative space systemsNovel concepts for space engineering and interdisciplinary applicationsThe effort of the Editorial Board will be ensuring the journal to publish novel researches that advance the field, and will provide authors with a productive, fair, and timely review experience. It is our sincere hope that all researchers in the field of astrodynamics will eagerly access this journal, Astrodynamics, as either authors or readers, making it an illustrious journal that will shape our future space explorations and discoveries.