Impact of climate simulation resolutions on future energy system reliability assessment: A Texas case study

Abstract

The reliability of energy systems is strongly influenced by the prevailing climate conditions. With the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources, the interdependence between energy and climate systems has become even stronger. This study examines the impact of different spatial resolutions in climate modeling on energy grid reliability assessment, with the Texas interconnection between 2033 and 2043 serving as a pilot case study. Our preliminary findings indicate that while low-resolution climate simulations can provide a rough estimate of system reliability, high-resolution simulations can provide more informative assessment of low-adequacy extreme events. Furthermore, both high- and low-resolution assessments suggest the need to prepare for severe blackout events in winter due to extremely low temperatures.