Enhancing daily rainfall prediction in urban areas: a comparative study of hybrid artificial intelligence models with optimization algorithms

Abstract

Forecasting precipitation is a crucial input to hydrological models and hydrological event management. Accurate forecasts minimize the impact of extreme events on communities and infrastructure by providing timely and reliable information. In this study, six artificial intelligent hybrid models are developed to predict daily rainfall in urban areas by combining the firefly optimization algorithm (FA), invasive weed optimization algorithm (IWO), genetic particle swarm optimization algorithm (GAPSO), neural network (ANN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and wavelet transformation. Optimization algorithms increase forecasting accuracy by controlling all stages. A variety of criteria are used for validating the models, including correlation coefficient (R), root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), critical success index (CSI), probability of detection (POD), and false alarm ratio (FAR). The proposed models are also evaluated in an urban area in Ahvaz, Iran. The GAPSO-Wavelet-ANN model is superior to other models for predicting daily rainfall, with an RMSE of 1.42 mm and an R of 0.9715.