Nomogram for Predicting Long-term Outcomes of Encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis in Toddlers with Moyamoya Disease: a Longitudinal and Cross-sectional Study.

Abstract

We investigated the long-term outcomes of encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis (EDAS) for stroke prevention in toddlers with moyamoya disease (MMD) using nomogram. Between January 2005 and December 2018, 74 toddlers with MMD underwent surgery in the Fifth Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 69 were < 4 years of age and included in the analysis. The modified Rankin scale (mRS) during follow-up evaluated clinical outcomes. To measure the effectiveness of EDAS, the annual risk of symptomatic infarction within the operated brain hemispheres was calculated. The event-free survival rate was determined using Kaplan-Meier curves. A nomogram generated using multivariate logistic regression analysis identified potential predictors associated with unfavorable outcomes. Additionally, discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were assessed. A favorable clinical outcome was observed in 81.2% of the patients. The operated hemispheres showed an annual risk of 0.87% of symptomatic infarction and 0.23% of hemorrhage. Moreover, the 10-year event-free survival rates were 92.8% and 97.0% for symptomatic infarction and hemorrhage. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that onset with infarction, initial mRS ≥ 3, and perioperative adverse events had significant and independent associations with unfavorable outcomes. However, an age at diagnosis of ≥ 2 years showed an association with favorable outcomes. Using these four factors, our model attained a concordance index of 0.912 (95% confidence interval, 0.842-0.982), well-fitted calibration curve, and cutoff value of 0.212 for predicting unfavorable outcomes. EDAS may prevent recurrent stroke and improve overall long-term clinical outcomes in toddlers with MMD. The developed nomogram accurately predicted unfavorable outcomes and assisted surgeons in patient evaluation.