Stochastic Models of Rainfall

IF 7.4 1区数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI:10.1146/annurev-statistics-040622-023838

Paul J. Northrop

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Rainfall is the main input to most hydrological systems. To assess flood risk for a catchment area, hydrologists use models that require long series of subdaily, perhaps even subhourly, rainfall data, ideally from locations that cover the area. If historical data are not sufficient for this purpose, an alternative is to simulate synthetic data from a suitably calibrated model. We review stochastic models that have a mechanistic structure, intended to mimic physical features of the rainfall processes, and are constructed using stationary point processes. We describe models for temporal and spatial-temporal rainfall and consider how they can be fitted to data. We provide an example application using a temporal model and an illustration of data simulated from a spatial-temporal model. We discuss how these models can contribute to the simulation of future rainfall that reflects our changing climate.Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 11 is March 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

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降雨的随机模型

降雨是大多数水文系统的主要输入。为了评估集水区的洪水风险，水文学家使用的模型需要一系列的亚日甚至亚小时的降雨数据，最好是来自覆盖该地区的位置。如果历史数据不足以达到此目的，则可选择模拟来自适当校准模型的合成数据。我们回顾了具有机械结构的随机模型，旨在模拟降雨过程的物理特征，并使用驻点过程构建。我们描述了时间和时空降雨的模型，并考虑如何将其与数据拟合。我们提供了一个使用时间模型的示例应用程序，并说明了从时空模型模拟的数据。我们讨论了这些模型如何有助于模拟未来的降雨量，以反映我们不断变化的气候。《统计及其应用年度评论》第11卷预计最终在线出版日期为2024年3月。请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates用于修订估算。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS-STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

CiteScore

13.40

自引率

1.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application publishes comprehensive review articles focusing on methodological advancements in statistics and the utilization of computational tools facilitating these advancements. It is abstracted and indexed in Scopus, Science Citation Index Expanded, and Inspec.