Implementation of large investment projects in the Northern sea route coastal territory in the context of climate changes

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the prospects for infrastructure support for large investment projects in the mining industry on the coastal territory of the Northern Sea Route (those projects that should provide its cargo base in the long term). A value estimate was made for the transport infrastructure, which should appear before 2030. Its total value, according to calculations, is about 0.5 trillion rubles in 2021 prices. Of these, about 370 billion rubles related to the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and 160 billion rubles—to the Krasnoyarsk krai. The following key infrastructure projects were analyzed: the construction of the “Utrenny” liquefied natural gas and stable gas condensate terminal in the Sabetta seaport, the construction of the Northern Latitudinal Railway, the construction of the Bovanenkovo-Sabetta railway, the construction of oil and coal terminals in the seaport Dixon, reconstruction of the Tiksi and Pevek seaports. The results obtained are necessary for predicting damages from natural hazards caused by climate change. The study analyzed the key trends in the construction industry, the dynamics of investments in fixed assets and fixed assets (primarily by the type of activity “Transportation and storage”) in the territory of the key region that forms the cargo base of the Northern Sea Route—the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. The analysis showed that the intensive dynamics characteristic of the fixed assets of the territory under consideration does not allow forecasting potential damage from climate change based on current data, but requires an assessment of the fixed assets value by the middle of the 21st century.