Taming Covid-19 Epidemic in São Paulo with a Logistic Model and Non-Pharmaceutical Measures

Abstract

. In this paper we use the simple logistic mathematical model to represent the development of COVID-19 epidemic in S˜ao Paulo city under quarantine regime and we estimate the total amount of time it is necessary to decrease the number of seriously ill in order to reduce the demand for ICU hospital beds to tolerable levels. Clearly the same reasoning used here can be used for any other city in similar conditions.